LOS ANGELES — One Battle After Another emerged as the dominant force at Sunday’s Critics Choice Awards (CCA), securing Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweep strengthens his position as a primary Oscar contender, alongside fellow winners Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Jessie Buckley (Hamnet).
While the Critics Choice Association consists of approximately 600 journalists, its membership does not overlap with the 11,000 industry professionals who determine the Academy Awards. However, the televised ceremony serves as a critical influence, shaping the viewing priorities of Oscar voters before the nomination window opens on January 12.
Supporting categories provided the evening’s biggest surprises: Jacob Elordi won for Frankenstein, and Amy Madigan took home the prize for Weapons. Historically, the CCA has correctly predicted the Oscar winner for Best Supporting Actor for nine consecutive years. Despite this, analysts suggest Elordi and Chalamet may face hurdles due to their youth, as the Academy traditionally favors veterans with established bodies of work.
The Influence of “Early Signals” in the Awards Ecosystem
The Critics Choice Awards (CCA) occupy a unique, if paradoxical, position in the Hollywood awards circuit. While they lack the direct voting overlap found in guild awards—such as the SAG or DGA—the CCA acts as a powerful psychological “bellwether” by establishing a narrative of inevitability.
1. The “Priority Viewing” Effect With thousands of eligible films, Academy members often struggle to watch every contender. A CCA win creates a “must-watch” list. For example, when Anora won the CCA top prize last year, it preceded similar wins at the PGA and DGA, effectively signaling to late-voters where to focus their attention.
2. Highbrow vs. Populist Divergence A recurring theme in awards season is the friction between critical darlings and populist hits. The CCA often favors “highbrow” cinema, as seen in past wins for Roma and The Power of the Dog. In contrast, the Academy—using a preferential ballot designed to find the most “liked” film—often pivots to more accessible winners like Green Book or CODA.
3. The “Overdue” Narrative The industry frequently uses the Oscars to reward a lifetime of achievement rather than a single performance. This creates a steep climb for young actors like Timothée Chalamet or Jacob Elordi. Conversely, it bolsters veterans like Amy Madigan or Stellan Skarsgård, whose wins are often viewed as a “career achievement” acknowledgment.
